Active addresses
Addresses interacting with a network over a chosen period. Bots, exchange operations and wallet changes can inflate the count.
Read the structure. Check the evidence.
Phillips Orbit Group examines price action alongside on-chain activity and macro conditions. We show what the data can support, and where a market view can fail.
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Chart of the Week: Funding Pressure
Perpetual funding can show when leveraged traders are leaning in one direction. The signal needs context from spot demand and open interest.
Context matters.
30-session exampleIllustrative funding-rate index
Normalized sample series, shown for reading practice
Normalized funding readings Reference levelRead: a sustained move above the reference can signal crowded long positioning. It is a caution flag, not a timing signal; spot buying and falling open interest would change the interpretation.
Sources for the study framework: Coin Metrics community data and Deribit public metrics. Window: an illustrative 30-session example. Values are normalized for explanation and are not live market data.
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Asset Deep Dives
Each review tests how supply, demand and competition fit together. Open an asset to see the questions we use before drawing a conclusion.
No token gets a pass.
Bitcoin
Supply: issuance follows a published schedule. Demand: we check spot flows and long-term holder activity. Risk: a strong thesis can still be undone by weak liquidity or a sharp macro repricing.
Test: is spot demand keeping pace with new exposure in derivatives?
Ethereum
Supply: issuance and fee burns shift with network use. Demand: we track settlement activity, staking and application fees. Risk: lower activity can weaken the case for fee-driven value capture.
Test: are users paying for blockspace, or is activity moving elsewhere?
Arbitrum
Supply: unlocks and circulating supply matter. Demand: we examine transaction activity and liquidity depth. Risk: network use does not automatically translate into token demand.
Test: does ecosystem growth create measurable value for the token?
Optimism
Supply: emissions and scheduled releases set the backdrop. Demand: we compare activity, fees and governance changes. Risk: competing rollups can draw developers and users away.
Test: can sustained activity support the network's economic model?
Asset Market capitalisation 30-day volume Volatility percentile Bitcoin Open source data Open source data Check timestamped series Ethereum Open source data Open source data Check timestamped series Arbitrum Open source data Open source data Check timestamped series Optimism Open source data Open source data Check timestamped series External figures change continuously. Our analysis cites the source and capture time whenever it uses a specific market value.
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On-Chain Metrics We Track
On-chain data describes activity recorded on a network. It cannot explain every motive behind that activity.
One metric never decides.
Holder cohorts
Supply grouped by wallet size or holding behaviour. Cohorts can hint at accumulation, but exchange wallets may blur the picture.
Exchange reserves
Tokens held at identified exchange addresses. A falling balance can mean withdrawals; it does not prove buyers are taking control.
Staking participation
Tokens committed to network validation or staking contracts. Check withdrawal terms and validator concentration before reading it as reduced supply.
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Volatility and Liquidity Outlook
Options positioning, order-book depth and scheduled macro events can change how much room a move has. We frame conditions to watch, not a price target.
Scenarios, not targets.
Upside case
Spot demand expands while funding stays near its recent range. Thin offers can speed a rally, but they also make a reversal sharper.
Invalidation: spot demand fades as open interest rises.Range case
Options positioning and steady book depth keep price contained around well-traded levels. A scheduled data release may break that balance.
Invalidation: repeated acceptance outside the recent range.Downside case
Depth thins as spot selling meets crowded long exposure. A fast fall can push liquidations into already shallow bids.
Invalidation: bids return and selling pressure eases.For position sizing and risk limits, see Investment Guidance.
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How We Test a Market Read
A chart earns our attention when independent evidence points to the same pressure. We check the calendar before calling a move structural.
Evidence comes first.
Mark the event risk
Review central-bank decisions, inflation releases and major token unlocks before interpreting a sudden volume spike.
Compare separate signals
Pair price structure with spot flow, derivatives positioning and network activity. Agreement strengthens a read; divergence deserves attention.
Write down what breaks it
Each view names an observable condition that would make us reassess. If that condition arrives, the analysis changes.
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Compare Notes With the Desk
Send a specific market question or request the next analysis note by email. Include the asset and timeframe you care about.
Keep the question specific.
Talk through the evidence
Phillips Orbit Group covers market data and investment research. Analysis is informational and does not guarantee a result.
Contact the desk